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Video

Head and Neck Surgery

(A546) Examining Wildfire PM2.5 Impacts on Head and Neck Cancer Incidence and Mortality Rates in California

Monday, October 13, 2025
12:00 PM - 1:00 PM EDT
Location: OTO EXPO, Posters

    Presenting Author(s)

  • Cynthia Sun, BS

    Medical Student
    University of California, Davis, School of Medicine
    Sacramento, California, United States

    • Co-Author(s)

  • Nina D. Ham, BA

    Medical Student
    UC Davis School of Medicine
    Sacramento, California, United States

  • NM

    Nikita Mohapatra, BS

    Student
    University of California, Davis, School of Medicine
    Sacramento, California, United States

    • Senior Author(s)

  • Marianne Abouyared, MD

    Associate Professor
    University of California, Davis
    Sacramento, California, United States

Disclosure(s):
Cynthia Sun, BS: No relevant relationships to disclose.
Nina D. Ham, BA: No relevant relationships to disclose.
Nikita Mohapatra, BS: No relevant relationships to disclose.
Marianne Abouyared, MD: No relevant relationships to disclose.


Introduction: The 2018 Camp Fire in Butte County, California was the state’s deadliest fire to date. Wildfires release large amounts of particulate matter smaller than 2.5 microns (PM2.5) that can exceed federal ambient air quality standards by 300%. Climate change has exacerbated the intensity and frequency of wildfires, but the effect of wildfire PM2.5 on head and neck cancer (HNC) remains understudied. This study examines the impact of wildfire PM2.5 on HNC incidence and mortality rates in California.

Methods: HNC incidence and mortality rates for 58 California counties (2007-2021) were compiled from the SEER Program and linked with concentrations of all-source and wildfire PM2.5 estimated from a Community Multiscale Air Quality model (Koman et al., 2022). HNC incidence and mortality were evaluated for pre- (2015-2017) and post-Camp Fire (2019-2021) years. Poisson and linear regression models were used for statistical analysis.

Results: In Butte County, pre- and post-Camp Fire HNC incidence (0.24, 1.3) and mortality (-0.41, 1.5) rates increased over time. Statewide HNC incidence (-0.25, -0.2) and mortality (-0.05, 0.05) rates demonstrated a smaller increase during these periods. From 2007 to 2021, there was no significant correlation between wildfire PM2.5 and statewide HNC incidence (p = 0.07). All-source and wildfire PM2.5 had significant correlations with statewide HNC mortality at 0, 3, and 5-year lag periods (p < 0.05), with wildfire PM2.5 showing a modestly stronger correlation.

Conclusions: HNC incidence and mortality was increased in Butte County when comparing pre- and post- Camp Fire rates. Though wildfire PM2.5 was positively correlated with HNC mortality up to a 5-year lag period, there was no significant correlation with HNC incidence. This may be due to a lack of sufficient lead time or granular data such as regional healthcare access. This study highlights the need for ongoing data collection and resource allocation in areas vulnerable to wildfires.